The method

Every farm gets the same question.

What does it cost: capital and time. What can it pay. How likely is that payout. Multiply the last two, subtract the first, and you have an expected value. That number, not the narrative, decides whether a farm is worth an hour of your week.

The three inputs

• Cost

  Capital locked plus the hours it actually takes. Both are real, both get counted.

• Payout

  What the allocation could realistically be worth at launch, discounted, because pre-launch markets tend to over-price it.

• Probability

  The odds it converts at all: token, timing, dilution, and whether the program is still alive.

What this is not

No signals. No price targets. Nothing is “guaranteed” or “risk-free,” and there is no “only today.” Someone else's research is an input to my own, never something I pass on unsourced. The most useful thing I publish is often a no: the farms that aren't worth it.

Referrals, stated plainly

A referral link only appears when the verdict is already positive, and it is always labelled. The math comes first; the link is a footnote to it, never the reason for it. Full list on the referrals page.

No noise, just the numbers. None of this is financial advice.